雅思閱讀素材關稅對貿易的影響

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DONALD TRUMP is hardly the first American president to slap unilateral tariffs on imports. Every inhabitant of the Oval Office since Jimmy Carter has imposed some kind of protectionist curbs（選詞）on trade， often on steel. Nor will Mr Trump’s vow to put 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminium by themselves wreck the economy： they account for 2% of last year’s $2.4trn of goods imports， or 0.2% of GDP. If this were the extent of Mr Trump’s protectionism， it would simply be an act of senseless self-harm. In fact， it is a potential disaster—both for America and for the world economy.

特朗普不是第一個單方面加征進口關稅的美國總統。自卡特以來，橢圓辦公室的每一任主人都實施過一些貿易保護主義措施，通常是針對鋼鐵行業。

As yet it is unclear exactly what Mr Trump will do. But the omens are bad. Unlike his predecessors， Mr Trump is a long-standing sceptic of free trade. He has sneered at the multilateral trading system， which he sees as a bad deal for America. His administration is chaotic， and Gary Cohn’s ominous decision on March 6th to resign as the president’s chief economic adviser deprives the White House of a rare free-trader， signaling that it has fallen into protectionist hands. Not since its inception at the end of the second world war has the global trading system faced such danger.

目前尚不清楚特朗普到底會做什么，但前景不妙。與歷任美國總統不同，特朗普一直對自由貿易持懷疑態度。他對多邊貿易體系嗤之以鼻，認為該體系令美國受到了不公正的待遇。他的政府混亂無序，而本月6日加里·科恩（Gary Cohn）又做出了一個讓人感覺不妙的決定：辭去總統首席經濟顧問一職。

Rough trade（貿易亂戰）

This danger has several dimensions. One is the risk of tit-for-tat escalation. After the EU said it would retaliate with sanctions on American goods， including bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorbikes， Mr Trump threatened exports of European cars.

危險表現在幾方面。一是以牙還牙的報復行動有升級的風險。在歐盟表示要對波本威士忌、哈雷摩托車等美國商品實施反制措施后，特朗普威脅要向歐盟出口的汽車征稅。

The second danger springs from Mr Trump’s rationale. The tariffs are based on a little-used law that lets a president protect industry on grounds of national security. That excuse is self-evidently spurious. Most of America’s imports of steel come from Canada， the European Union， Mexico and South Korea， America’s allies. Canada and Mexico look set to be temporarily excluded—but only because Mr Trump wants leverage in his renegotiation of the North American Free-Trade Agreement， which has nothing to do with national security. Mr Trump is setting a precedent that other countries are sure to exploit to protect their own producers， just as spuriously.

第二個危險來自特朗普的行動依據。此番征收關稅的依據是一項極少援引的法律：總統可以以國家安全為由保護工業。這個理由顯然站不住腳。美國進口的鋼材大部分來自它的盟友，如加拿大、歐盟、墨西哥和韓國。

It is not clear whether other countries can respond legally when national security is invoked in this way. This puts the World Trade Organization （WTO） into a rat trap. Either Mr Trump will provoke a free-for-all of recrimination and retaliation that the WTO’s courts cannot adjudicate， or the courts will second-guess America’s national-security needs， in which case Mr Trump may storm out of the organization altogether.

美國此番搬出國家安全的名義，其他國家是否可以訴諸法律仲裁目前尚不清楚。世貿組織（WTO）陷入了窘境。要么是特朗普將引發一場互相指責和報復的混戰，令世貿組織的法庭無法裁決；要么法庭對美國的國家安全需求做事后批評，在這種情況下，特朗普可能會憤然退出該組織。

Mr Trump has lobbed his grenade as the WTO is already under strain. The collapse of the Doha round of trade talks in 2015， after 14 fruitless years， put needed reforms on hold indefinitely. Disputes that might have been swept into a new trade round have fallen to the WTO’s dispute-resolution machinery， which is too slow and too frail to carry the burden. The WTO has not kept pace with economic change. Investment is increasingly tied up in intangibles， such as patents and copyright， rather than physical assets， such as steel mills. Rules drafted for rich， market-led economies cannot always police state capitalism. The implicit subsidies China gives its producers were a cause of global gluts in industrial metals. No wonder that the world’s second-biggest economy has been the focus of so much anger.

特朗普扔出這枚手榴彈之際，世貿組織本已承受重壓。經過14年沒有成果的會談后，2015年多哈回合貿易談判破裂，令必需的改革無限期擱置。一些爭端本可能會進入新一輪貿易談判，然而世貿組織的爭端解決機制太過緩慢和脆弱，無法承擔此重負。世貿組織沒有跟上經濟變化的步伐。投資越來越多地和專利、版權這樣的無形資產聯系在一起，而不是像鋼鐵廠這樣的有形資產。為市場主導的富裕經濟體制定的規則并不總能管制國家資本主義。中國向其生產商提供的隱性補貼是導致全球工業金屬過剩的原因之一。難怪這個世界第二大經濟體已經成為眾矢之的。

Whatever the WTO’s problems， it would be a tragedy to undermine it. If America pursues a mercantilist trade policy in defiance of the global trading system， other countries are bound to follow. That might not lead to an immediate collapse of the WTO， but it would gradually erode one of the foundations of the globalised economy.

無論世貿組織有怎樣的問題，破壞它都將釀成一場悲劇。如果美國無視全球貿易體系，奉行重商主義的貿易政策，其他國家肯定會效仿。這可能不會導致世貿組織立即崩潰，但會逐漸侵蝕全球化經濟的一大根基。

Everyone would suffer. Mr Trump seems to think trade is a zero-sum affair， in which a deficit is a sign of a bad deal. But the vast improvement in living standards after the second world war went hand in hand witha rapid expansion in world trade over eight trade rounds， each of which lowered barriers. Imports are in fact welcome， because they benefit consumers and spur producers to specialize in what they do best.

誰的日子都不會好過。特朗普似乎認為貿易是一種零和活動，而赤字是糟糕交易的信號。然而二戰后生活水平的巨大提高與世界貿易的快速擴張密切相關，推動這種擴張的八個貿易回合談判中，每一回合都降低了貿易壁壘。進口商品其實是受歡迎的，因為它們使消費者受益，還會促使生產者專注于他們最擅長的產品。

Without the WTO， cross-border trade would continue—it is unstoppable—but the lack of norms and procedures would leave disputes to escalate. The fewer the rules， the more scope for mercantilist mischief and backsliding. Trade policy could be captured by special interests. Military power would hold greater sway in trade disputes than economic fair play. Transnational investment could drain away. As a vast continental economy， America would lose less from this than other countries. It would nonetheless lose a lot， including a pillar of the system that has underpinned its post-war political influence.

如果沒有世貿組織，跨境貿易仍將繼續，畢竟這是不可阻擋的，但缺乏規范和規程將導致爭端升級。規則越少，重商主義制造麻煩和倒退的余地就越大。貿易政策可能會被特殊利益集團把持。在貿易爭端中，軍事力量會比經濟上的公平競爭更具影響力。跨國投資可能會流失。作為一個巨大的大陸經濟體，美國的損失會少于其他國家。然而它還是會損失重大，包括支撐其戰后政治影響力的體系中的一大支柱。

How should the world get out of this bind？ Even as Mr Trump behaves with astonishing irresponsibility， others must keep their heads. Some may impose limited retaliation—that， after all， is how to treat bullies， and the threat to local manufactures will strengthen the hand ofRepublicans pressing Mr Trump to relent. But such action must be proportionate and limited. A tit-for-tat war with America would be disastrous.

全世界應該如何擺脫這一困局？特朗普表現出驚人的不負責任之時，其他人必須保持冷靜。

Back to basics（回歸根本）

The more important task is to shore up support for trade. It would be comforting to think there is global backing to fix the WTO. But just now， there is not. The only new trade deals on offer are regional， such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership （TPP）， an 11-country pact signed this week that sets out to be a blueprint for trade modernization. Although Mr Trump abandoned it， he has hinted he may reconsider， which would be a start.

PHRASAL VERB If you shore up something that is weak or about to fail， you do something in order to strengthen it or support it.

更重要的任務是加強對貿易的支持。如果全球都支持修整世貿組織，可能會讓人稍感安慰。但現狀并非如此。僅有的新貿易協議也是地區性的，比如《跨太平洋伙伴關系協定》（TPP），這個于本周簽署的十一國協定將成為貿易現代化的藍圖。盡管特朗普之前放棄了這一協定，但暗示他可能會重新考慮，這可能會是個開始。

he best way to help the WTO would be for its other members to co-ordinate any action， including bringing in a WTO complaint about Mr Trump’s tariffs. Even though that may burden the WTO’s court， it would be a vote of confidence in the idea that the global economy should be governed by rules.

要幫助世貿組織，最好的辦法是其他成員在任何行動上協調一致，包括向世貿組織投訴特朗普的關稅政策。盡管這可能會給世貿組織的法庭帶來負擔，但這將會是一張“信任票”，表示各國相信全球經濟應當受到規則的管理約束。T

The world is a long way from the 1930s， thank goodness. Yet ignorance and complacency have put the trading system in grave danger. Free-traders need to recognize that the WTO can help keep markets open in the face of protectionist lobbying， at home and abroad. It is vitalthey make the intellectual case for rules-based trade. That will not be easy. For the first time in decades， their biggest foe is the man in the Oval Office.

謝天謝地，我們離上世紀30年代已經很遙遠了。然而，無知和自滿讓貿易體系岌岌可危。支持自由貿易的人士要認識到，在面對貿易保護主義的游說時，世貿組織有助于市場保持開放，無論是在國內還是國外。至關重要的一點是，他們得證明基于規則的貿易是有理有據的。這并不容易。眼下他們最大的敵人就是橢圓辦公室里的那個人。幾十年來，這還是頭一遭。

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